Thursday 17 September 2015

Mr Powerful Returns, Says NDA has the Edge in Bihar



“Stop moping about the house and get dressed,” the wife told me, with a distinct edge in her voice. “The markets aren’t going to bounce back just to cure your depression. Just get on with it now.”

I looked at her with hurt in my eyes, but one glance at her face made me realise that I had played this depression card for too long. The wife was correct. I had lost a pile in the latest vicious correction, and what was worse, I had recommended the same dud shares to my boss.

Anyway, it was time to drown my sorrows in someone else’s whisky. So, I donned by best evening suit and drove off, with spouse in tow, to Rajesh Damani’s party.

As soon as I entered, I spied old Mr Powerful, sitting in a corner, accompanied by a glass of the choicest scotch. It had been more than a year since I had last seen him. Rumour had it that the old codger had been down with cancer. The doctors gave him six months. He took just four. The Emperor of Maladies beat a hasty retreat but not without leaving Mr Powerful bed-ridden for two quarters.

“Ah! Mr Banker,” he called out to me in a commanding voice, “how have the markets been treating you, young man?”

“I expected the correction,” I lied. “India has been expensive for some time now, so this was bound to come.”

“Why?” he asked with his typical derisive nasal twang. “Acche Din didn’t come for the markets and MBAwallahs?”

“It has only been 15 months,” I said. “The PM needs more time.”

“Hmph! If he loses Bihar, he will have no more time. It will be game over,” said Mr Powerful.

“Well, it is an unfair and unholy alliance that will beat him,” I said, finally finding my voice. “It is a fight between those who want Bihar to remain stuck in mandal politics and those who want to take it forward.”

“Really?” asked Mr Powerful. It was obviously not a question, but a polite way to say that he considered me a fool. “In any case, there is no reason for you bhakts to worry. The NDA has a clear edge in Bihar, and not because of its promise of achhe din, but precisely because it has managed to work out a great caste alliance.”

“Really?” I too made an attempt to sound sarcastic. “How is that going to happen?”

“You see, the backward castes are not one monolithic group. They are made up of several caste groups. The top three are the Yadavs, followed by Koeris and then Kurmis. Together they make up about 25 per cent of the population. That means, one in every four voters is an upper OBC.”

“I can do the maths, sir,” I said sarcastically.

Mr Powerful brushed aside my interruption and continued. “Yadavs or Ahirs are mostly small and middle farmers, but they have also traditionally been cattle-herders and milk-sellers. Yadavs are a martial caste, quick to become violent, which is why they supplied the foot-soldiers for the private armies of Zamindars in the days of the Raj.”

He stopped a passing bearer, and picked up another glass of whisky, took a glug and went on with his lecture: “It will interest you to know that the Yadavs have often been at war with the lower OBCs and Dalits, who are the landless labourers who work the fields and supply the bodies for hard labour in the villages. In fact, the Yadavs formed one of the earliest caste armies in Bihar called the Lorik Sena. And they specialised in killing, beating and intimidating these low-caste tenant-farmers and farm labourers.”

“I knew that,” I lied. Mr Powerful glared at me.

“If you talk about Kurmis and Koeris, they too are mostly small and middle peasants. Kurmis have traditionally been grain-farmers, while Koeris have diversified into vegetables, fruits, tobacco and what MBAwallahs use regulary – opium.” He chuckled in a self-satisfied manner at the last dig at me. I have no idea why the guy hates us MBAs so much.

“Even though Kurmis are smaller in number they are more influential locally, as they are mostly concentrated in the Magadh region in central Bihar. Koeris, on the other hand, are evenly distributed across Bihar. In most areas they have just 2000 to 4000 votes. There are only about 25 odd assembly seats where Koeris make up more than 8,000-10,000 votes.”

“There is one other distinctive feature of Koeris. They are considered the cleanest of the lower castes. Old anthropologists have recorded cases from some regions of Bihar, where Brahmins have accepted food cooked by Koeris. That is why, Koeris are amongst the most sanskritised of OBCs in Bihar, and the most likely to find common ground with upper castes and Hindutva forces.”

“Sir, you seem to treat the two as interchangeable categories,” I interrupted. “Upper castes are not necessarily backers of Hindutva, and those who support Modi for his development agenda don’t necessarily believe we need a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya."

“Don’t they?” again the same sarcastic question. “In any case,” said Mr Powerful, “it does not matter. Upper castes in Bihar support the BJP because they want to gain back their lost glory. They have been out of power for 25 years – although Nitish did bring them in through the backdoor in the past few years. Hindutva is the glue for the upper castes that gives an ideological sheen to their fear of lower caste hegemony.”

“So, are you saying that development does not matter?” I asked.

“No. I am not saying that. Development matters to everyone. Nitish Kumar has been trying to market himself as the poster-boy of development for Bihar. But Nitish’s development rhetoric is sitting on top of the politics of caste. The Modi-Shah development brand rides on Hindutva.”

Mr Powerful took another long, deep sip from his whisky glass, caught his breath and continued with his monologue. “The real battle-ground is neither Hindutva nor development. It is the category of most backward caste and the mahadalit.”

“As I was saying, before you interrupted me, the Yadavs, Kurmis and Koeris, haven’t ever been great friends with the lower backward castes and Dalits. If the Yadavs had their Lorik Sena to subjugate the rural poor, the Kurmis had Bhoomi Sena and the Koeris their Azad Sena. Throughout the Naxalite period, these senas have fought armed squads of the Maoists and attacked lower OBC and dalit hamlets.”

“But, despite their differences on the ground, the backward castes united under Lalu in the early 90s, mostly as a reaction to the anti-Mandal agitation by upper castes. You must have been part of that, Mr Banker?” he asked me.

“No, sir. I wasn’t in India at that time. I was studying in the US.” I said gruffly. I was hoping my tone conveyed my irritation with his humiliating manner.

“Are you getting offended by an old cancer survivors jokes, my boy?” he asked, playing the sympathy card.

“No, no, sir! Of course not. Please carry on.”

“Where was I? Ah yes, I was talking about Lalu. The guy is a genius at carving together caste alliances, a true marketing and sales guru.” (Another dig. Sigh!)

“Lalu managed to whip up an anti-upper caste frenzy. He made dignity the key battle cry, and created an emotive atmosphere that helped unite the different lower and backward caste groups.”

“BhuraBaal Saaf karo,” I said. “I remember that.”

“Exactly! I am very impressed,” said Mr Powerful, genuinely smiling at me for the first time. “Bhumihar, Rajput, Baman Lala – BhuRaBaL. Genius slogan for its times, much like Acche Din aane waale hai was last year.”

“Lalu could have been unbeatable, if he had sincerely done land-reforms in Bihar. You know, the state’s image is one of unbridled landlordism, but did you know that it has the most radical and progressive land reform laws in the India?”

“No,” I said, “I had no idea.”

“Yes, if Bihar’s land-reforms laws are actually implemented, then a tenant who has cultivated someone else’s land for 12 years, will automatically become its owner. It is so radical, that D Bandopadhaya, the legendary architect of West Bengal’s land reforms said they needed to be diluted for them to be implemented by any political party.”

“When Lalu came to power in 1990, Jyoti Babu told him, in front of me, that proper land reforms will keep him in power for at least 20 years. But, you know what Lalu said? He told one of his favourite journalists, that poora balancewa hi bigad jayega – the entire balance will be disrupted by land reforms. What he did not say, is that he will lose the support of Yadavs and upper OBCs if he suddenly handed over land to the poor tenants and agricultural labourers.”

“Everyone knows that Lalu’s 15 years made the Yadavs even more powerful. They occupied government jobs, took over panchayats, and an entire industry of criminality flourished under them. That also meant that the upper OBCs also got divided. Yadavs were now at loggerheads with the Kurmis and Koeris too.”

“Is that why Nitish broke with Lalu?” I asked.

“Exactly. You are one smart banker, I must say,” Mr Powerful said genially, as he stopped a bearer for another refill.

“Nitish Kumar’s break with Lalu had as much to do with Lalu’s growing unpopularity due to his corrupt image as it did with the conflicts on the ground between Yadavs and Kurmi-Koeris. That is why Lalu’s lieutenant, the Koeri leader Upendra Kushwaha also broke away and joined Nitish.”

By now, a small crowd had gathered around us. Mr Powerful, used to be virtually mobbed at parties even two years ago. He was known to have great contacts within the UPA and had a direct line to Mrs.G. His magnetism had waned with the arrival of Good Days, but he was such a good story teller that even today, people had slowly given up their fear of being seen with a certified Congressi and a mini durbar had magically appeared around him, once again.

 “But Powerfulji, these OBCs are bound to unite again, if they feel we are coming together to end their jungle-raaj”, a booming voice proclaimed. I turned around to locate the owner of the voice and recognised our old friend Colonel Clipped Moustache. Colonel Moustache had retired from active service almost a decade ago, and had invested a not-so-inconsiderable inheritance to set up a security guard supplying company. His success in business had convinced him of his own genius and made him inordinately liberal with sharing his illiberal opinions.

“I wish they would,” Mr Powerful said, “so that Bihar does not return to the days of the Atyaachar Raaj of the upper castes. But, unfortunately for human beings and fortunately for you, this is unlikely to happen.”

The fungus on Col Moustache’s face bristled, his upper lip quivered as he searched for a suitable riposte. But, at that moment, words failed the valiant soldier, and he turned his grimace into a smile.

Mr Powerful gave him a dismissive look and continued “The biggest problem that Nitish Kumar faces today, is that he built his brand around the rubbish of development politics and good governance. His Sushasan gambit is just a watered down version of the development rhetoric of Modi. Nitish is trying to fight on a platform where Modi is the clear leader.”

“You mean development is rubbish?!” I asked. “Some of my colleagues who grew up in Patna will vouch for the change Nitish brought about. His sisters had never left their home after six in the evening. When Nitish became CM they could go for movies, malls opened in Patna, people started going out to restaurants. I have seen stories on TV of young girls going to school in villages on their cycles, something they would never have dared to do in Lalu’s time.”

“Ha! This is the problem with you people. Why do you believe what you see on TV? Do you know that registered crime went up by 25% between 2006 and 2010?”

“That is probably because crimes were being registered by the police when Nitish became CM,” I countered. “Before that, it’s quite possible that people didn’t even dare to complain to the police.”

“No, Sir! That is not true,” said Mr Powerful. “In fact, the National Women’s Commission had complained in 2010, that rape cases were not getting registered in Bihar.”

“The real difference is that man there,” Mr Powerful said, pointing to a well-known former bureaucrat-turned-politician-cum-lobbyist. The stocky gentleman with salt and pepper hair was known to be close to India’s biggest corporate house and he had worked his way into Nitish’s inner coterie.

“That man built Brand Nitish, using his friends and beneficiaries in the national media. The local media was bought over by showering bounties of government advertisements, housing for journalists, and even Rajya Sabha seats.”

“The stories you watched on TV, the reports you read in newspapers, were all part of a carefully calibrated strategy of brand-building. I see you are smiling sceptically, young man,” Mr Powerful said.

“I must admit, your stories do sound like mega conspiracy theories,” I said trying to stop myself from smirking. “You seem to think that we are all fools, easily manipulated by a few smart people.”

“No, I am not saying that,” Mr Powerful said. “It is just that we are all likely to believe what we want to believe. Smart people utilise these moments and exploit them for their own benefit. But, you are right. They cannot fool people if the tide is going against them.”

“In Nitish’s case,” he continued, “India’s elite – people like you and me – wanted to believe that by defeating Lalu, he had brought an end to caste politics in Bihar. But, as I told you just now, Nitish’s victory was as much a result of a contingent alliance between upper castes allied with the BJP, the upper OBCs like Kurmis and Koeris who were unhappy with the dominance of the Yadavs and the lower OBCs and Dalits who continued to be as poor as they were under the Congress.”

“The common anger against Yadavs was the glue that joined these disparate caste groups together, and development became the paint that covered these joints. The media helped Nitish actively, in creating the Sushasan image.”

“It wasn’t as if crime was not reported: After all, it is the staple of the local tabloid press in any state. What changed was how it was reported. In Lalu’s time, rape, murder and kidnapping was presented in the media as a government enterprise. During the Nitish era, the same crimes began to be reported as sporadic and random incidents, which the state was trying to fight.”

“But, what about my own friends and colleagues who said things have changed on the ground?” I asked.

“I am not denying that things did change in Patna and other parts of Bihar,” Mr Powerful said. “Nitish did act against top mafia lords and gangs, but he also created his own. What also happened was that unfounded fears turned into an unfounded sense of security.”   

“Nitish came to power with the help of the BJP and, in his initial days, he wanted to create a new caste alliance. He was serious about land-reforms and brought land-reforms guru D Bandopadhyaya in to frame a new policy. Bandopadhyaya recommended two basic things. One was giving permanent tenancy rights to anyone who had farmed a tract of land for more than 12 years. The other was a plan to redistribute ceiling-surplus land amongs the poorest sections and landless labourers. This would have immediately helped the lower OBCs and Dalits.”

“So what happened? That would have been radical,” said a young lady in a cotton sari. I vaguely recognised her from television debates where she represented the left-liberal-secular voice.

“Nothing” said Mr Powerful with a wave of his hand. “Nothing happened. Nitish buried Bandopadhyaya’s report and it was only after prolonged protests from some left MLAs that the government issued a CD copy with the English version of the report. The Hindi version was never released.”

“How awful!” said Cotton sari.

“Don’t know whether one can call it awful, but it could have freed him of the upper castes and Hindutva forces,” Mr Powerful replied. "Nitish realised that implementing land-reforms would have angered his own core support base, the Kurmis and Koeris. So, he chose market-friendly reforms and infrastructure development to create a social consensus.”

“Well, Bihar did become one of the highest growing states in India,” I said. I had written a private client report on this myself, so I knew the details. “If I remember correctly, it grew at an average of 11 per cent per year between 2005 and 2009.”

“You know state GDP numbers are supplied by states themselves,” Mr Powerful countered. “Nevertheless, even if these numbers are true, it is also true that even in 2010, 74% of Bihar’s population was living off agriculture, which provided just 22% of its GDP. 3.5% of farmers owned 33% of the land. UN data suggests 81% of Bihar’s population was poor in 2011. Nitish’s own estimate in 2010 was that 70% of people are poor. Clearly, the majority of the people had not benefited from this miraculous growth phase. You see son, I can rattle off numbers too”

“I never doubted that,” I said smiling graciously to retain my dignity. The old goat had clearly beaten me in this round, as well.

“One more curious thing happened during Nitish’s raj. The RSS, Banjrang dal and other Hindutva forces entered through the backdoor. Upper castes felt more secure to go back to their villages and began to revive some of their old power.”

“Are you sure you should have another one?” I asked, as Mr Powerful stopped a bearer to take his fourth large glass of scotch.

He ignored me and took a big sip. “You know Chris Hitchens – I knew the old chap quite well – used to say alcohol helps him organise his thoughts. It does the same for me. Anyway, what was I saying?”

“You were telling us something fascinating about how the BJP made inroads into Bihar,” Cotton Sari cooed.

 “No, I was saying that Nitish has dug his own grave in two ways. One, that he opened the gates for the BJP and the upper-castes to install themselves in the power structure in rural Bihar. The second is that his focus on jobless growth has led to large scale displacement of the poor, indebtedness continues to grow, malnutrition is as bad as it used to be. In the process, he has lost support from a large section of the rural poor. The mahadalit alliance that he wanted to build has actually ended up moving towards the BJP.”

“Well if Nitish Kumar thinks he is going to win on development, he doesn’t stand a chance against Modji,” Col Moustache piped up. “Look, even now Gujarat is the best place to do business in India. That is why Bihar also wants Modiji.”

“Is that the reason why your Modiji and Amit Shah have mapped each assembly seat by caste?” shouted Mr Powerful. He looked like he was about to burst a nerve. “They did exactly that in the Lok Sabha elections as well. Amit Shah set up a fantastic contact programme on the ground where BJP workers from each of the smaller castes from amongst the lower OBCs were contacted individually. This is going to happen on an even bigger scale this time. They have the manpower and money power to do this.”

Mr Powerful paused, looked around his audience and asked “does anyone amongst you follow the election analysis done by the chappies at CSDS? You should look it up. Their surveys show that the BJP managed to get more than half the lower OBC votes in the Lok Sabha. Kushwaha managed to swing the Koeri vote towards the NDA and Paswan brought in more than two-thirds of the Paswan and Dusadh vote, which is almost 10% of Bihar’s population. Now they also have Majhi in the mix. He will definitely swing a part of the Musahar vote towards the BJP.”

“I had read somewhere that if you add up Nitish, Lalu and the Congress's votes of 2014, the Nitish camp has about 46% and the NDA has about 39%,” I said, trying to impress Mr Powerful with my knowledge. “Doesn’t that amount to a complete sweep for Nitish and Lalu?”

“No, it does not. You see, this vote share hides huge regional differences,” Mr Powerful responded. “The NDA is ahead in two regions, Tirhut and Bhojpur, while the Nitish-Lalu alliance is ahead in the East, Mithila and Magadh.”

“The real fight will be right here, in the Magadh region, which is supposed to be Nitish’s base,” he added, almost conspiratorially. “Will Nitish lose more ground here? Will Lalu make up for it? Or will the BJP-Paswan-Kushwaha-Manjhi combine gain here?”

“But, what about the Muslims?” I asked. “Won’t they play the most crucial role?”

“Yes and no,” Mr Powerful replied. “Yes because they are a big block. One in every six voters in Bihar is a muslim. But, No, because they have already voted as a bloc in 2014. Nearly two-thirds of them voted for the Lalu-Congress combine.”

“In fact, this time Owaisi might cut into that vote,” Col Moustache said gleefully.

“Yes, that might happen,” Mr Powerful conceded. “What is more likely is that Owaisi might play spoiler in tight contests. In any case, each of these separate elements will give Modi the edge in Bihar this time.”

“So, you admit that caste will be defeated by development?” I asked.

“No, not at all. Caste will be defeated by caste.”