“Stop moping about the house and
get dressed,” the wife told me, with a distinct edge in her voice. “The markets
aren’t going to bounce back just to cure your depression. Just get on with it
now.”
I looked at her with hurt in my
eyes, but one glance at her face made me realise that I had played this
depression card for too long. The wife was correct. I had lost a pile in the
latest vicious correction, and what was worse, I had recommended the same dud
shares to my boss.
Anyway, it was time to drown my
sorrows in someone else’s whisky. So, I donned by best evening suit and drove
off, with spouse in tow, to Rajesh Damani’s party.
As soon as I entered, I spied old
Mr Powerful, sitting in a corner, accompanied by a glass of the choicest
scotch. It had been more than a year since I had last seen him. Rumour had it
that the old codger had been down with cancer. The doctors gave him six months.
He took just four. The Emperor of Maladies beat a hasty retreat but not without
leaving Mr Powerful bed-ridden for two quarters.
“Ah! Mr Banker,” he called out to
me in a commanding voice, “how have the markets been treating you, young man?”
“I expected the correction,” I
lied. “India has been expensive for some time now, so this was bound to come.”
“Why?” he asked with his typical
derisive nasal twang. “Acche Din didn’t come for the markets and MBAwallahs?”
“It has only been 15 months,” I
said. “The PM needs more time.”
“Hmph! If he loses Bihar, he will
have no more time. It will be game over,” said Mr Powerful.
“Well, it is an unfair and unholy
alliance that will beat him,” I said, finally finding my voice. “It is a fight
between those who want Bihar to remain stuck in mandal politics and those who
want to take it forward.”
“Really?” asked Mr Powerful. It
was obviously not a question, but a polite way to say that he considered me a
fool. “In any case, there is no reason for you bhakts to worry. The NDA has a
clear edge in Bihar, and not because of its promise of achhe din, but precisely
because it has managed to work out a great caste alliance.”
“Really?” I too made an attempt
to sound sarcastic. “How is that going to happen?”
“You see, the backward castes are
not one monolithic group. They are made up of several caste groups. The top
three are the Yadavs, followed by Koeris and then Kurmis. Together they make up
about 25 per cent of the population. That means, one in every four voters is an
upper OBC.”
“I can do the maths, sir,” I said
sarcastically.
Mr Powerful brushed aside my
interruption and continued. “Yadavs or Ahirs are mostly small and middle
farmers, but they have also traditionally been cattle-herders and milk-sellers.
Yadavs are a martial caste, quick to become violent, which is why they supplied
the foot-soldiers for the private armies of Zamindars in the days of the Raj.”
He stopped a passing bearer, and
picked up another glass of whisky, took a glug and went on with his lecture:
“It will interest you to know that the Yadavs have often been at war with the
lower OBCs and Dalits, who are the landless labourers who work the fields and
supply the bodies for hard labour in the villages. In fact, the Yadavs formed
one of the earliest caste armies in Bihar called the Lorik Sena. And they
specialised in killing, beating and intimidating these low-caste tenant-farmers
and farm labourers.”
“I knew that,” I lied. Mr
Powerful glared at me.
“If you talk about Kurmis and
Koeris, they too are mostly small and middle peasants. Kurmis have
traditionally been grain-farmers, while Koeris have diversified into
vegetables, fruits, tobacco and what MBAwallahs use regulary – opium.” He
chuckled in a self-satisfied manner at the last dig at me. I have no idea why
the guy hates us MBAs so much.
“Even though Kurmis are smaller
in number they are more influential locally, as they are mostly concentrated in
the Magadh region in central Bihar. Koeris, on the other hand, are evenly
distributed across Bihar. In most areas they have just 2000 to 4000 votes.
There are only about 25 odd assembly seats where Koeris make up more than
8,000-10,000 votes.”
“There is one other distinctive
feature of Koeris. They are considered the cleanest of the lower castes. Old
anthropologists have recorded cases from some regions of Bihar, where Brahmins
have accepted food cooked by Koeris. That is why, Koeris are amongst the most
sanskritised of OBCs in Bihar, and the most likely to find common ground with
upper castes and Hindutva forces.”
“Sir, you seem to treat the two
as interchangeable categories,” I interrupted. “Upper castes are not
necessarily backers of Hindutva, and those who support Modi for his development
agenda don’t necessarily believe we need a Ram Mandir in Ayodhya."
“Don’t they?” again the same
sarcastic question. “In any case,” said Mr Powerful, “it does not matter. Upper
castes in Bihar support the BJP because they want to gain back their lost
glory. They have been out of power for 25 years – although Nitish did bring
them in through the backdoor in the past few years. Hindutva is the glue for
the upper castes that gives an ideological sheen to their fear of lower caste
hegemony.”
“So, are you saying that
development does not matter?” I asked.
“No. I am not saying that.
Development matters to everyone. Nitish Kumar has been trying to market himself
as the poster-boy of development for Bihar. But Nitish’s development rhetoric
is sitting on top of the politics of caste. The Modi-Shah development brand
rides on Hindutva.”
Mr Powerful took another long,
deep sip from his whisky glass, caught his breath and continued with his
monologue. “The real battle-ground is neither Hindutva nor development. It is
the category of most backward caste and the mahadalit.”
“As I was saying, before you
interrupted me, the Yadavs, Kurmis and Koeris, haven’t ever been great friends
with the lower backward castes and Dalits. If the Yadavs had their Lorik Sena
to subjugate the rural poor, the Kurmis had Bhoomi Sena and the Koeris their
Azad Sena. Throughout the Naxalite period, these senas have fought armed squads
of the Maoists and attacked lower OBC and dalit hamlets.”
“But, despite their differences
on the ground, the backward castes united under Lalu in the early 90s, mostly
as a reaction to the anti-Mandal agitation by upper castes. You must have been
part of that, Mr Banker?” he asked me.
“No, sir. I wasn’t in India at
that time. I was studying in the US.” I said gruffly. I was hoping my tone
conveyed my irritation with his humiliating manner.
“Are you getting offended by an
old cancer survivors jokes, my boy?” he asked, playing the sympathy card.
“No, no, sir! Of course not.
Please carry on.”
“Where was I? Ah yes, I was
talking about Lalu. The guy is a genius at carving together caste alliances, a
true marketing and sales guru.” (Another dig. Sigh!)
“Lalu managed to whip up an
anti-upper caste frenzy. He made dignity the key battle cry, and created an
emotive atmosphere that helped unite the different lower and backward caste
groups.”
“BhuraBaal Saaf karo,” I said. “I
remember that.”
“Exactly! I am very impressed,” said
Mr Powerful, genuinely smiling at me for the first time. “Bhumihar, Rajput,
Baman Lala – BhuRaBaL. Genius slogan for its times, much like Acche Din aane
waale hai was last year.”
“Lalu could have been unbeatable,
if he had sincerely done land-reforms in Bihar. You know, the state’s image is
one of unbridled landlordism, but did you know that it has the most radical and
progressive land reform laws in the India?”
“No,” I said, “I had no idea.”
“Yes, if Bihar’s land-reforms
laws are actually implemented, then a tenant who has cultivated someone else’s
land for 12 years, will automatically become its owner. It is so radical, that
D Bandopadhaya, the legendary architect of West Bengal’s land reforms said they
needed to be diluted for them to be implemented by any political party.”
“When Lalu came to power in 1990,
Jyoti Babu told him, in front of me, that proper land reforms will keep him in
power for at least 20 years. But, you know what Lalu said? He told one of his
favourite journalists, that poora balancewa hi bigad jayega – the entire balance
will be disrupted by land reforms. What he did not say, is that he will lose
the support of Yadavs and upper OBCs if he suddenly handed over land to the
poor tenants and agricultural labourers.”
“Everyone knows that Lalu’s 15
years made the Yadavs even more powerful. They occupied government jobs, took
over panchayats, and an entire industry of criminality flourished under them. That
also meant that the upper OBCs also got divided. Yadavs were now at loggerheads
with the Kurmis and Koeris too.”
“Is that why Nitish broke with
Lalu?” I asked.
“Exactly. You are one smart
banker, I must say,” Mr Powerful said genially, as he stopped a bearer for
another refill.
“Nitish Kumar’s break with Lalu
had as much to do with Lalu’s growing unpopularity due to his corrupt image as
it did with the conflicts on the ground between Yadavs and Kurmi-Koeris. That
is why Lalu’s lieutenant, the Koeri leader Upendra Kushwaha also broke away and
joined Nitish.”
By now, a small crowd had
gathered around us. Mr Powerful, used to be virtually mobbed at parties even
two years ago. He was known to have great contacts within the UPA and had a
direct line to Mrs.G. His magnetism had waned with the arrival of Good Days,
but he was such a good story teller that even today, people had slowly given up
their fear of being seen with a certified Congressi and a mini durbar had
magically appeared around him, once again.
“But Powerfulji, these OBCs are bound to unite
again, if they feel we are coming together to end their jungle-raaj”, a booming
voice proclaimed. I turned around to locate the owner of the voice and
recognised our old friend Colonel Clipped Moustache. Colonel Moustache had
retired from active service almost a decade ago, and had invested a
not-so-inconsiderable inheritance to set up a security guard supplying company.
His success in business had convinced him of his own genius and made him
inordinately liberal with sharing his illiberal opinions.
“I wish they would,” Mr Powerful
said, “so that Bihar does not return to the days of the Atyaachar Raaj of the
upper castes. But, unfortunately for human beings and fortunately for you, this
is unlikely to happen.”
The fungus on Col Moustache’s
face bristled, his upper lip quivered as he searched for a suitable riposte. But,
at that moment, words failed the valiant soldier, and he turned his grimace
into a smile.
Mr Powerful gave him a dismissive
look and continued “The biggest problem that Nitish Kumar faces today, is that
he built his brand around the rubbish of development politics and good
governance. His Sushasan gambit is just a watered down version of the
development rhetoric of Modi. Nitish is trying to fight on a platform where
Modi is the clear leader.”
“You mean development is
rubbish?!” I asked. “Some of my colleagues who grew up in Patna will vouch for
the change Nitish brought about. His sisters had never left their home after
six in the evening. When Nitish became CM they could go for movies, malls
opened in Patna, people started going out to restaurants. I have seen stories
on TV of young girls going to school in villages on their cycles, something
they would never have dared to do in Lalu’s time.”
“Ha! This is the problem with you
people. Why do you believe what you see on TV? Do you know that registered
crime went up by 25% between 2006 and 2010?”
“That is probably because crimes
were being registered by the police when Nitish became CM,” I countered.
“Before that, it’s quite possible that people didn’t even dare to complain to
the police.”
“No, Sir! That is not true,” said
Mr Powerful. “In fact, the National Women’s Commission had complained in 2010,
that rape cases were not getting registered in Bihar.”
“The real difference is that man
there,” Mr Powerful said, pointing to a well-known former
bureaucrat-turned-politician-cum-lobbyist. The stocky gentleman with salt and
pepper hair was known to be close to India’s biggest corporate house and he had
worked his way into Nitish’s inner coterie.
“That man built Brand Nitish,
using his friends and beneficiaries in the national media. The local media was
bought over by showering bounties of government advertisements, housing for
journalists, and even Rajya Sabha seats.”
“The stories you watched on TV,
the reports you read in newspapers, were all part of a carefully calibrated
strategy of brand-building. I see you are smiling sceptically, young man,” Mr
Powerful said.
“I must admit, your stories do
sound like mega conspiracy theories,” I said trying to stop myself from
smirking. “You seem to think that we are all fools, easily manipulated by a few
smart people.”
“No, I am not saying that,” Mr
Powerful said. “It is just that we are all likely to believe what we want to
believe. Smart people utilise these moments and exploit them for their own
benefit. But, you are right. They cannot fool people if the tide is going
against them.”
“In Nitish’s case,” he continued,
“India’s elite – people like you and me – wanted to believe that by defeating
Lalu, he had brought an end to caste politics in Bihar. But, as I told you just
now, Nitish’s victory was as much a result of a contingent alliance between
upper castes allied with the BJP, the upper OBCs like Kurmis and Koeris who
were unhappy with the dominance of the Yadavs and the lower OBCs and Dalits who
continued to be as poor as they were under the Congress.”
“The common anger against Yadavs
was the glue that joined these disparate caste groups together, and development
became the paint that covered these joints. The media helped Nitish actively,
in creating the Sushasan image.”
“It wasn’t as if crime was not
reported: After all, it is the staple of the local tabloid press in any state. What
changed was how it was reported. In Lalu’s time, rape, murder and kidnapping
was presented in the media as a government enterprise. During the Nitish era,
the same crimes began to be reported as sporadic and random incidents, which
the state was trying to fight.”
“But, what about my own friends
and colleagues who said things have changed on the ground?” I asked.
“I am not denying that things did
change in Patna and other parts of Bihar,” Mr Powerful said. “Nitish did act
against top mafia lords and gangs, but he also created his own. What also
happened was that unfounded fears turned into an unfounded sense of security.”
“Nitish came to power with the
help of the BJP and, in his initial days, he wanted to create a new caste
alliance. He was serious about land-reforms and brought land-reforms guru D
Bandopadhyaya in to frame a new policy. Bandopadhyaya recommended two basic
things. One was giving permanent tenancy rights to anyone who had farmed a
tract of land for more than 12 years. The other was a plan to redistribute
ceiling-surplus land amongs the poorest sections and landless labourers. This
would have immediately helped the lower OBCs and Dalits.”
“So what happened? That would
have been radical,” said a young lady in a cotton sari. I vaguely recognised
her from television debates where she represented the left-liberal-secular
voice.
“Nothing” said Mr Powerful with a
wave of his hand. “Nothing happened. Nitish buried Bandopadhyaya’s report and
it was only after prolonged protests from some left MLAs that the government
issued a CD copy with the English version of the report. The Hindi version was
never released.”
“How awful!” said Cotton sari.
“Don’t know whether one can call
it awful, but it could have freed him of the upper castes and Hindutva
forces,” Mr Powerful replied. "Nitish realised that implementing land-reforms
would have angered his own core support base, the Kurmis and Koeris. So, he
chose market-friendly reforms and infrastructure development to create a social
consensus.”
“Well, Bihar did become one of
the highest growing states in India,” I said. I had written a private client
report on this myself, so I knew the details. “If I remember correctly, it grew
at an average of 11 per cent per year between 2005 and 2009.”
“You know state GDP numbers are
supplied by states themselves,” Mr Powerful countered. “Nevertheless, even if
these numbers are true, it is also true that even in 2010, 74% of Bihar’s
population was living off agriculture, which provided just 22% of its GDP. 3.5%
of farmers owned 33% of the land. UN data suggests 81% of Bihar’s population
was poor in 2011. Nitish’s own estimate in 2010 was that 70% of people are
poor. Clearly, the majority of the people had not benefited from this
miraculous growth phase. You see son, I can rattle off numbers too”
“I never doubted that,” I said
smiling graciously to retain my dignity. The old goat had clearly beaten me in
this round, as well.
“One more curious thing happened
during Nitish’s raj. The RSS, Banjrang dal and other Hindutva forces entered
through the backdoor. Upper castes felt more secure to go back to their
villages and began to revive some of their old power.”
“Are you sure you should have
another one?” I asked, as Mr Powerful stopped a bearer to take his fourth large
glass of scotch.
He ignored me and took a big sip.
“You know Chris Hitchens – I knew the old chap quite well – used to say alcohol
helps him organise his thoughts. It does the same for me. Anyway, what was I
saying?”
“You were telling us something
fascinating about how the BJP made inroads into Bihar,” Cotton Sari cooed.
“No, I
was saying that Nitish has dug his own grave in two ways. One, that he opened
the gates for the BJP and the upper-castes to install themselves in the power
structure in rural Bihar. The second is that his focus on jobless growth has
led to large scale displacement of the poor, indebtedness continues to grow,
malnutrition is as bad as it used to be. In the process, he has lost support
from a large section of the rural poor. The mahadalit alliance that he wanted
to build has actually ended up moving towards the BJP.”
“Well if Nitish Kumar thinks he
is going to win on development, he doesn’t stand a chance against Modji,” Col Moustache
piped up. “Look, even now Gujarat is the best place to do business in India.
That is why Bihar also wants Modiji.”
“Is that the reason why your
Modiji and Amit Shah have mapped each assembly seat by caste?” shouted Mr
Powerful. He looked like he was about to burst a nerve. “They did exactly that
in the Lok Sabha elections as well. Amit Shah set up a fantastic contact
programme on the ground where BJP workers from each of the smaller castes from
amongst the lower OBCs were contacted individually. This is going to happen on
an even bigger scale this time. They have the manpower and money power to do
this.”
Mr Powerful paused, looked around
his audience and asked “does anyone amongst you follow the election analysis
done by the chappies at CSDS? You should look it up. Their surveys show that
the BJP managed to get more than half the lower OBC votes in the Lok Sabha.
Kushwaha managed to swing the Koeri vote towards the NDA and Paswan brought in
more than two-thirds of the Paswan and Dusadh vote, which is almost 10% of
Bihar’s population. Now they also have Majhi in the mix. He will definitely
swing a part of the Musahar vote towards the BJP.”
“I had read somewhere that if you
add up Nitish, Lalu and the Congress's votes of 2014, the Nitish camp has about 46% and
the NDA has about 39%,” I said, trying to impress Mr Powerful with my
knowledge. “Doesn’t that amount to a complete sweep for Nitish and Lalu?”
“No, it does not. You see, this vote share
hides huge regional differences,” Mr Powerful responded. “The NDA is ahead
in two regions, Tirhut and Bhojpur, while the Nitish-Lalu alliance is ahead in the
East, Mithila and Magadh.”
“The real fight will be right
here, in the Magadh region, which is supposed to be Nitish’s base,” he added, almost conspiratorially. “Will Nitish lose more ground here? Will Lalu make up
for it? Or will the BJP-Paswan-Kushwaha-Manjhi combine gain here?”
“But, what about the Muslims?” I
asked. “Won’t they play the most crucial role?”
“Yes and no,” Mr Powerful
replied. “Yes because they are a big block. One in every six voters in Bihar is
a muslim. But, No, because they have already voted as a bloc in 2014. Nearly
two-thirds of them voted for the Lalu-Congress combine.”
“In fact, this time Owaisi might
cut into that vote,” Col Moustache said gleefully.
“Yes, that might happen,” Mr
Powerful conceded. “What is more likely is that Owaisi might play spoiler in
tight contests. In any case, each of these separate elements will give Modi the
edge in Bihar this time.”
“So, you admit that caste will be
defeated by development?” I asked.
“No, not at all. Caste will be
defeated by caste.”